Reuters is reporting that Putin is ready for a ceasefire with recognition of the current front lines, according to sources close to the Kremlin. The rationale is that he’s done enough to sell this war as a win to the Russian people and is reluctant to order further mobilisation that would be required to achieve additional military goals. However, we’re told NATO is blocking negotiations because it would prefer for an unwinnable war to be dragged out.
Reuters’ sources suggest another obstacle to peace is Zelensky himself, but he’s probably not the man in charge - and Ukraine has to do whatever NATO tells it to anyway. If NATO was serious about peace, it could just tell Zelensky no more weapons and he would have to negotiate. Instead, the US is sending another $61 billion which is just a massive waste of money and lives.
As Active Measures points out, western weapons keep disappearing on the black market and Ukrainian generals drive around in very expensive cars. A reported 12% of recent supplies are unaccounted for, and prior to that, the figure was even higher. Ukraine took billions to build fortifications like dragon’s teeth to stop Russian tanks and those fortifications were never built, leaving a Ukrainian newspaper to ask where are the fortifications?
The New York Times is reporting that Russian troops have poured over the border with virtually no resistance, due to the lack of Ukrainian fortifications and troops. Meanwhile, recruitment centres have been helping Ukrainian men flee the country to avoid the draft. Russia has captured about 18% of Ukrainian territory and controls parts of the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, giving it a land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine insists its ten-point plan to reclaim the land lost to Russia is not up for negotiation.
Putin has suggested resuming talks on the plan that was agreed at the start of the war, based on the realities on the ground. Ukraine claims Russia cannot be trusted to honour any deal, but what’s the worst that can happen after a deal? The war starts again? How is that any worse than continuing the war now?
Zelensky is willing to sacrifice however many men to hold onto land that is 70% ethnic Russian, but what Zelensky wants is irrelevant. As Reuters points out, Russia can fight for as long as it takes, given its ammunition production capacity and stable economy, which is doing fine, despite what western propagandists insist.
Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.
Russia is on a permanent war footing and Ukraine is struggling as its exhausted ranks are stretched and depleted. The Ukrainian economy is being kept afloat by western support with the US paying the wages of its troops, farmers, first responders, and civil service as well as propping up small businesses. That support is hardly going to last forever and when it stops, Ukraine could be set for an almighty collapse. Don’t worry though, western disaster capitalists will be there to pick up the pieces.
If you think this is about saving democracy, Senator Lindsey Graham let the cat out of the bag when asked if the US could afford to support Ukraine:
“Here's what we've gotten for our investment. We haven't lost one soldier. We reduced the combat power of the Russian army by 50% and not one of us has died in that endeavour. This is a great deal for America.”
Clearly, the west does not have noble intentions for the Ukrainian people, despite its insistence otherwise. Just look at our track record across the globe: we leave a wake of death and destruction wherever we go in the name of freedom and democracy. We did not suddenly become the good guys for this war, we are just Oceania fighting Eurasia and Ukraine is caught in the middle. It’s the latest victim of the endless war machine.
Putin’s primary goals were always to stop the civil war in eastern Ukraine and stop NATO’s expansion along Russia’s borders. If Putin is satisfied with current gains and negotiations can guarantee those things, there is no further reason to fight, unless Ukraine continues trying to reclaim lost territory. However, Putin is hoping to take Kharkiv and recognition of current lines would suggest giving up on that goal. Reuters suggests Putin would prefer to use his forces’ current momentum to seek an end to fighting, which means claiming more territory to force Ukraine to the negotiating table.
One worry about the suggestion of negotiations is that our idiot leaders smell a weakness that is not really there and think they can seize the opportunity to topple Putin. NATO looks set to allow Ukraine to fire weapons into Russian territory, a move that achieves nothing other than make NATO countries Russian targets.
Russia is jamming Ukraine’s HIMARS, GLSDB bombs, GMLRS rockets, and other GPS-guided weapons, rendering them useless, and it’s even jamming Starlink satellites, disrupting communications. This means Ukraine is limited in its capability to attack Russian soil with any degree of accuracy. It will be depending on a limited number of weapons that are less susceptible but not impervious to jamming like Storm Shadow missiles. We’ll get to those later.
If there really is no western appetite for negotiation, remember this when the war finally ends. Remember what was on offer with the Istanbul agreement two years ago and what is on offer today, because this war does not end in a better place for Ukraine. Another year of war would be another year of territorial and troop losses. The only alternative is a major escalation from NATO and worryingly, that could be on the cards. It’s hard to guess because we’re getting such mixed signals.
I was hoping saner voices could be slowly but surely winning the argument, but a recent interview with British MP Andrew Bridgen put forward a worrying possibility: we are already at war with Ukraine. I don’t mean in the sense that we’re giving them support, I mean boots on the ground.
Bridgen spoke with Doc Malik earlier this month and spelled out how British troops are actively involved in fighting Russia. He spoke of a meeting with the Russian ambassador who claimed Ukrainians do not have the technical expertise to operate our Storm Shadow missiles and our soldiers are doing this for them. Bridgen claimed France and the US are involved in fighting too.
You can say what you like about Bridgen, but he was matter of fact and sincere throughout the interview. Given the Reform MP was until recently part of the Tory government and won four elections, we should take what he said seriously, because if he’s right, we’re in deep shit.
Bridgen spoke of how it makes no difference whether Sunak or Starmer is in charge because neither man is pulling the strings and the decision to go to war with Russia is being made for them. He claimed Sunak is stepping down because he does not wish to be a wartime prime minister, probably because he’s smart enough to know what a disaster war would be - and that’s in the best case scenario.
Bridgen spoke of a report which showed we don’t have “any defence for the UK against the Russian arsenal” and explained Russia’s missiles and missile defence systems are much more advanced than ours. He also pointed out they have 30 times more nuclear weapons. Imagine being stupid enough to think Russia is in a weakened position and that we could militarily defeat them. Talk about playing with fire.
Here are a few quotes from the interview:
“We are at war with Russia now. They just haven’t told you.”
“If you look at the facts, since ‘91, we’ve moved NATO a thousand miles nearer to Moscow, they haven’t moved nearer to us.”
“NATO wanted to put missiles on the border of Russia. What did America do when the Soviet Union tried to put missiles in Cuba, 90 miles off the Florida coast?”
“Rishi’s told the generals he doesn’t want to be a wartime prime minister.”
Most worrying was when Bridgen said we’re already at war, but they’re not going to tell the people until maybe July or August. That’s when Mr Trilateral Commission, Sir Keir Starmer, will be the face of the uniparty and something tells me he would relish every moment of war. He would see it as his Churchill moment, and the man who said Israel has the right to starve kids is not going to suddenly start valuing human life, is he? It would be the mother of all meat grinders.
One ray of hope is that the warmongers must surely know Europe does not have the ammunition production capacity for all out war, unless they have a plan they’ve been keeping under wraps. I was under the impression it would take us two to three years to be ready, but if they’ve spent the last two years making preparations in secret, who knows? One worrying suggestion I’ve heard is that Israel is going all out in Gaza because it knows World War III is coming and its atrocities will soon be drowned out by the worldwide death and destruction. If this is true, God help us…
I can't help but think of the Ukrainian people who voted for Zelensky as a president for peace. Having been lied to by NATO, lost so many people, being persuaded not to sign a peace agreement...isn't it time to do the sensible thing and negotiate a peaceful settlement?
A world war would be absolutely stupid, and that's what the west seems to be itching for. We can't afford it.
Sadly, tragically and almost unthinkably, I cannot but believe that all you say makes possibly the best analysis of the current situation and potential for an even worse and more wide-spread conflagration in the future.
Thank you for writing and sharing this for, although deeply disturbing, perhaps if more people are aware of a considered and objective appraisal, rather than just mainstream media propaganda and political hypocrisy, subterfuge, dissembling, opacity and deceit, we may yet avert catastrophe.
Take care. Stay safe. ☮️